目　錄 第一章　復雜性與臨界性...............................................................................1 簡單的物理定律與復雜的大自然 ..........................................................3 講故事與科學 ..........................................................................................8 復雜性理論能解釋什么？ ....................................................................10 災變遵循一種簡單的模式 ....................................................................14 分形幾何 ................................................................................................21 f /1噪聲：時間中的分形 .......................................................................24 齊普夫定律 ............................................................................................27 冪律與臨界現(xiàn)象 ....................................................................................29 處于平衡態(tài)的系統(tǒng)不是復雜的 ............................................................30 混沌不具有復雜性 ................................................................................33 自組織臨界性 ........................................................................................35 第二章　自組織臨界性的發(fā)現(xiàn).....................................................................37 在布魯克海文 ........................................................................................37 f/1噪聲從何而來？ ...............................................................................41 蘇珊·科珀史密斯的狗模型 .................................................................42 耦合扭擺 ................................................................................................45 簡單模型的哲學：“球形奶牛” .............................................................46 擺系統(tǒng)變成臨界的 ................................................................................51 第三章　沙堆模型.........................................................................................56 沙堆模型 ................................................................................................59 假如生活在沙堆世界 ............................................................................67 我們能用筆和紙計算出冪律嗎？ ........................................................72 第四章　實際沙堆與地貌的形成.................................................................75 真實的沙堆實驗 ....................................................................................76 挪威的米堆實驗 ....................................................................................80 維則克的山體滑坡實驗：分形現(xiàn)象出現(xiàn) ............................................86 喜馬拉雅“沙堆” ..................................................................................88 巖渣的沉積 ............................................................................................89 地貌學：偏離平衡的地表 ....................................................................92 第五章　地震、星震及太陽耀斑.................................................................97 地震的自組織 ......................................................................................101 一處印刷錯誤導致了重要進展 ..........................................................107 斯特龍博利附近的隆隆聲 .................................................................. 111 地殼是臨界的 ...................................................................................... 113 脈沖星頻率突增與星震 ...................................................................... 114 黑洞與太陽耀斑 .................................................................................. 116 第六章　“生命的游戲”：復雜性就是臨界性 ..........................................120 第七章　生命是自組織臨界現(xiàn)象嗎？.......................................................129 圣菲研究所 ..........................................................................................130 沙堆與間斷平衡 ..................................................................................134 相互制約調節(jié)的適應性圖像 ..............................................................135 第八章　簡單演化模型中的大滅絕與間斷平衡.......................................147 我們能對達爾文建模嗎？ ..................................................................150 周日下午的一個科學課題 ..................................................................153 低溫產生復雜生命 ..............................................................................164 與真實數(shù)據(jù)比較 ..................................................................................165 恐龍滅絕和隕石 ..................................................................................172 丹蒂· 查爾沃的演化游戲 ...................................................................174 自組織臨界性與蓋亞假說 ..................................................................175 重新來一次演化 ..................................................................................177 第九章　間斷平衡模型理論.......................................................................182 什么才算理論？ ..................................................................................182 演化模型的隨機近鄰形式 ..................................................................184 自組織過程 ..........................................................................................188 臨界態(tài) ..................................................................................................191 重訪生命游戲 ......................................................................................192 重訪地震 ..............................................................................................193 第十章　大腦與自組織臨界性...................................................................197 為什么大腦應當是臨界的？ ..............................................................198 猴子問題 ..............................................................................................200 大腦與河網 ..........................................................................................203 第十一章　經濟和交通阻塞.......................................................................206 均衡經濟像水 ......................................................................................206 實際經濟像沙 ......................................................................................209 臨界經濟的一個簡單模型 .................................................................. 211 波動和災難不可避免 ..........................................................................215 交通阻塞 ..............................................................................................216 參考文獻.......................................................................................................223 人名英漢對照表...........................................................................................230 附錄　湯超致譯者信...................................................................................238 譯后記...........................................................................................................240