目錄
前言
縮寫和縮略語(yǔ)
第1章 世界與中國(guó)能源發(fā)展概況l
1.1世界能源發(fā)展回顧2
l.1.1經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與能源消費(fèi)呈正相關(guān)，能源彈性在不同時(shí)期差異顯著2
1.1.2能源消費(fèi)方式日趨高效清潔，清潔能源占比逐年提升3
1.1.3各主要國(guó)家能源強(qiáng)度隨時(shí)間變化趨勢(shì)不同，中國(guó)降幅最大4
1.1.4能源資源潛力并不悲觀，油氣儲(chǔ)采比無(wú)顯著下降趨勢(shì)5
1.1.5能源消費(fèi)增量基本來(lái)自發(fā)展中國(guó)家，出現(xiàn)能源峰值的國(guó)家日益增多5
1.2世界能源發(fā)展的新變化和新格局7
1.2.1次能源消費(fèi)增速明顯減緩，未來(lái)15年能源需求仍將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)7
1.2.2大宗工業(yè)品價(jià)格自2014年以來(lái)大幅下跌，油價(jià)降幅最大8
1.2.3上游能源企業(yè)利潤(rùn)大幅縮減，能源投資下滑且并購(gòu)業(yè)務(wù)遇冷9
1.2.4清潔能源投資再創(chuàng)新高，清潔能源發(fā)展勢(shì)頭良好10
1.2.5《巴黎協(xié)議》簽訂，全球清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型持續(xù)推進(jìn)10
1.3國(guó)際主要能源市場(chǎng)概況11
1.3.1石油儲(chǔ)量穩(wěn)步上升，區(qū)域分布極不平衡11
1.3.2石油市場(chǎng)供需增量結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生變化，石油供應(yīng)過(guò)�，F(xiàn)象嚴(yán)重11
1.3.3油價(jià)自2014年下半年以來(lái)大幅下跌，并可能長(zhǎng)期維持較低水平14
1.3.4石油貿(mào)易量穩(wěn)步上升，2015年貿(mào)易增速有所回升15
1.3.5天然氣儲(chǔ)量分布不平衡，主要集中于伊俄卡三國(guó)15
1.3.6天然氣生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)增速放緩，亞太地區(qū)增速最高17
1.3.7各主要區(qū)域天然氣價(jià)格自2008年后分化明顯，近兩年價(jià)格明顯下跌19
1.3.8天然氣貿(mào)易集中在少數(shù)國(guó)家，2015年貿(mào)易量有所復(fù)蘇20
1.3.9煤炭?jī)?chǔ)量變化不大，區(qū)域分布不均21
1.3.10煤炭生產(chǎn)、消費(fèi)增速均減緩，2015年煤炭市場(chǎng)供大于求的矛盾緩解21
1.3.11煤炭?jī)r(jià)格自2012年開始下滑，煤炭貿(mào)易量穩(wěn)步上升22
1.4中國(guó)能源發(fā)展概況23
1.4.1能源供應(yīng)量保持增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)，多因素致其增速減緩23
1.4.2化石能源仍占能源消費(fèi)主要地位，清潔能源呈規(guī)�；�發(fā)展23
1.4.3能源強(qiáng)度隨經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)呈下降趨勢(shì)，相比發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家仍較高26
1.4.4油氣進(jìn)口量平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)，對(duì)外依存度持續(xù)上升27
1.4.5傳統(tǒng)能源價(jià)格普遍下降，新能源競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力減弱28
1.4.6非化石能源發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量發(fā)展迅速，但棄風(fēng)棄光問(wèn)題嚴(yán)重30
1.4.7機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量增長(zhǎng)空間巨大，高補(bǔ)貼推動(dòng)新能源汽車爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)31
1.4.8天然氣是化石能源清潔利用的關(guān)鍵，其供給呈多元化快速發(fā)展32
1.4.9二氧化碳排放增速較快，碳減排壓力增大33
1.5中國(guó)能源市場(chǎng)發(fā)展新變化與新格局34
1.5.1“十二五”規(guī)劃節(jié)能目標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)，“十三五”規(guī)劃總量控制壓力減弱34
1.5.2應(yīng)對(duì)全球氣候變化，節(jié)能減排面臨新挑戰(zhàn)36
1.5.3經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入新常態(tài)，能源供給側(cè)改革受到重視37
1.5.4積極構(gòu)建全球能源互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，推動(dòng)現(xiàn)代能源體系建設(shè)37
1.5.5電力天然氣交易市場(chǎng)積極探索，新輪電力改革全面實(shí)施38
第2章 中國(guó)能源市場(chǎng)要素40
2.1中國(guó)能源市場(chǎng)生產(chǎn)者及其特點(diǎn)41
2.1.1能源市場(chǎng)供給以煤為主，清潔能源比例不斷上升41
2.1.2不同能源市場(chǎng)集中度不同，同品種不同環(huán)節(jié)也不盡相同42
2.1.3能源市場(chǎng)不同環(huán)節(jié)準(zhǔn)入門檻各異，供應(yīng)鏈上游準(zhǔn)入門檻較高44
2.1.4各種能源定價(jià)情況不盡相同，煤炭定價(jià)的市場(chǎng)化程度最高45
2.2中國(guó)能源市場(chǎng)消費(fèi)者及其特點(diǎn)45
2.2.1宏觀視角：政府影響較大，企業(yè)和居民用能結(jié)構(gòu)有待提升45
2.2.2行業(yè)視角：工業(yè)能耗占比高，建筑、交通等行業(yè)能耗增速快48
2.3中國(guó)能源成本核算51
2.3.1中國(guó)能源成本核算存在的問(wèn)題51
2.3.2成本核算的歷史沿革及未來(lái)改進(jìn)的方向51
2.3.3氣、油、電等代表性能源產(chǎn)品的具體成本核算方法52
2.4中國(guó)能源定價(jià)機(jī)制54
2.4.1中國(guó)能源定價(jià)機(jī)制的歷史變遷54
2.4.2中國(guó)能源定價(jià)機(jī)制的最新進(jìn)展56
2.4.3中國(guó)能源定價(jià)機(jī)制的未來(lái)改革方向57
2.5中國(guó)能源市場(chǎng)效率與政府參與58
2.5.1政府“看得見的手”對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)效率的宏觀調(diào)控58
2.5.2中國(guó)能源企業(yè)管理的改革方向：政企分開、職責(zé)明確58
2.5.3能源市場(chǎng)中的政府定位需要進(jìn)步明晰和優(yōu)化59
第3章 新常態(tài)下宏觀政策對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)的影響60
3.1中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)的影響61
3.1.1新常態(tài)的內(nèi)涵：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中高速增長(zhǎng)、結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型61
3.1.2中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨日益趨緊的資源環(huán)境約束61
3.1.3嚴(yán)控高碳行業(yè)增長(zhǎng)，強(qiáng)調(diào)能源效率提高62
3.2人民幣國(guó)際化對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)的影響64
3.2.1人民幣國(guó)際化：內(nèi)涵及進(jìn)程64
3.2.2人民幣貶值將減少煤炭進(jìn)口，可能使中國(guó)成為煤炭?jī)舫隹趪?guó)67
3.2.3人民幣匯率變化對(duì)中國(guó)石油進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易影響的實(shí)證分析67
3.3利率市場(chǎng)化對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)的影響69
3.3.1利率作為貨幣政策工具對(duì)能源價(jià)格形成沖擊70
3.3.2利率主要影響可再生能源的投資和中國(guó)企業(yè)海外投資70
3.3.3充分利用利率杠桿并促進(jìn)能源市場(chǎng)發(fā)展71
3.4財(cái)稅體制改革對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)的影響71
3.4.1財(cái)稅政策有效支持能源市場(chǎng)發(fā)展71
3.4.2目前能源財(cái)稅政策實(shí)施存在問(wèn)題72
3.4.3完善財(cái)稅體制改革并促進(jìn)能源市場(chǎng)發(fā)展74
3.4.4資源稅：應(yīng)采取“小步走”的漸進(jìn)式方案75
3.4.5征收環(huán)境稅的利弊存在爭(zhēng)議76
3.5新能源與可再生能源推廣政策對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)的影響77
3.5.1新能源與可再生能源推廣政策概述77
3.5.2可再生能源在建筑領(lǐng)域得到推廣78
3.5.3發(fā)展新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)日益受到重視79
3.6供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)的影響80
3.6.1產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩是供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的重要原因80
3.6.2供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革：提高供給質(zhì)量和全要素生產(chǎn)率81
3.6.3基于“新供給經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”的供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革從四個(gè)方面影響能源市場(chǎng)82
3.6.4“去產(chǎn)能、去庫(kù)存、去杠桿、降成本、補(bǔ)短板”的特點(diǎn)及最新動(dòng)向83
第4章 能源市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及防范85
4.1能源市場(chǎng)供需風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析86
4.1.1宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制86
4.1.2能源需求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)87
4.1.3能源供給風(fēng)險(xiǎn)88
4.2全球資本市場(chǎng)對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)沖擊及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)89
4.2.1金融危機(jī)對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)短期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢出效應(yīng)顯著89
4.2.2金融危機(jī)對(duì)能源供需影響效應(yīng)持續(xù)93
4.3國(guó)際能源市場(chǎng)政策溢出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)94
4.3.1各國(guó)能源市場(chǎng)政策重點(diǎn)不但發(fā)展方向致94
4.3.2新能源政策力度大且市場(chǎng)份額逐漸提升96
4.3.3技術(shù)進(jìn)步增大傳統(tǒng)能源市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)97
4.4防范能源市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施99
4.4.1應(yīng)對(duì)金融危機(jī)對(duì)能源市場(chǎng)影響的措施99
4.4.2應(yīng)對(duì)能源政策溢出效應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施99
第5章 中國(guó)能源期貨市場(chǎng)：金融屬性研究101
5.1中國(guó)能源期貨市場(chǎng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀102
5.1.1中國(guó)能源期貨市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展歷程102
5.1.2中國(guó)能源期貨市場(chǎng)建設(shè)與主要品種103
5.1.3中國(guó)石油期貨市場(chǎng)發(fā)展評(píng)述109
5.2中國(guó)能源期貨市場(chǎng)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)112
5.2.1原油期貨上市交易存在不確定性112
5.2.2天然氣期貨旨在爭(zhēng)奪定價(jià)權(quán)113
5.2.3“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+”助推中國(guó)能源期貨發(fā)展114
5.3能源期貨與能源現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)中的價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)116
5.3.1能源期貨市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能概述116
5.3.2價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)程度的評(píng)價(jià)方法118
5.3.3中國(guó)燃料油與石油瀝青期貨市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能評(píng)價(jià)119
5.3.4燃料油和石油瀝青期現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)具備價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能121
5.4燃料油期貨價(jià)格影響因素122
5.4.1政治與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素影響價(jià)格走勢(shì)122
5.4.2基本面因素支撐期貨價(jià)格水平123
5.4.3市場(chǎng)交易因素主導(dǎo)期貨價(jià)格波動(dòng)124
5.5激發(fā)能源期貨市場(chǎng)活力的措施126
5.5.1擴(kuò)充能源期貨品種來(lái)完善現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)有效性126
5.5.2保障基本能源戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備以維護(hù)能源期貨市場(chǎng)價(jià)格機(jī)制127
5.5.3改進(jìn)制度設(shè)計(jì)以促進(jìn)市場(chǎng)活躍127
5.5.4完善交易所內(nèi)部監(jiān)控機(jī)制以切實(shí)降低交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)128
5.5.5引入做市商制度來(lái)活化市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性128
5.5.6借助互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融平臺(tái)推動(dòng)能源產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型創(chuàng)新128
5.6健全能源期貨市場(chǎng)的市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管模式129
5.6.1建立石油基金體系以增強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理機(jī)制129
5.6.2鼓勵(lì)市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)以充分發(fā)揮現(xiàn)期貨市場(chǎng)功能129
5.6.3降低期貨交易門檻以完善市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入制度129
第6章 跨區(qū)域能源貿(mào)易130
6.1中國(guó)能源資源稟賦的區(qū)域分布特征131
6.1.1煤炭資源呈“北富南貧，西多東少”的分布特征131
6.1.2電力資源呈“火電為主，水電為輔”的結(jié)構(gòu)特征133
6.1.3油氣資源呈“北多南少”的分布特征136
6.2中國(guó)能源的跨區(qū)域消費(fèi)特點(diǎn)138
6.2.1煤炭消費(fèi)呈“東多西少，北多南少”的特點(diǎn)138
6.2.2電力消費(fèi)呈“東部為主，其他次之”的特點(diǎn)139
6.2.3石油消費(fèi)呈“東部為主，產(chǎn)消不均衡”的特點(diǎn)141
6.2.4天然氣消費(fèi)呈“集中于部分省份，區(qū)域間不均衡”的特點(diǎn)142
6.3中國(guó)跨區(qū)域間的能源貿(mào)易144
6.3.1以“西煤東運(yùn)、北煤南運(yùn)”為主導(dǎo)的煤炭貿(mào)易144
6.3.2以“西電東送”為主導(dǎo)的電力貿(mào)易145
6.3.3以“北油南調(diào)、西油東輸”為主導(dǎo)的石油貿(mào)易146
6.3.4以“西氣東輸”為主導(dǎo)的天然氣貿(mào)易147
6.3.5針對(duì)跨區(qū)域間能源跨貿(mào)易的政策建議148
6.4能源的跨區(qū)域運(yùn)輸、交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)與能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)148
6.4.1能源的跨區(qū)域運(yùn)輸原因及現(xiàn)狀149
6.4.2能源的跨區(qū)域運(yùn)輸和能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)存在的問(wèn)題150
6.4.3優(yōu)化能源運(yùn)輸空間格局的建議151
6.5“帶路”背景下的大區(qū)域能源市場(chǎng)間貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)及變化趨勢(shì)152
6.5.1“帶路”背景及主要能源區(qū)域152
6.5.2“帶路”背景下主要能源區(qū)域間貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)152
6.5.3“帶路”主要能源區(qū)域間貿(mào)易的新格局正在形成153
第7章 中國(guó)煤炭市場(chǎng)154
7.1我國(guó)煤炭市場(chǎng)供給特征155
7.1.1我國(guó)煤炭資源儲(chǔ)量豐富但儲(chǔ)采比偏低155
7.1.2煤炭在我國(guó)能源供應(yīng)中居基礎(chǔ)性地位且有增強(qiáng)趨勢(shì)156
7.1.3我國(guó)煤炭供應(yīng)主要集中于山西和內(nèi)蒙古等九大省份157
7.2我國(guó)煤炭市場(chǎng)需求特征158
7.2.1我國(guó)煤炭需求占全球總需求的1/2以上158
7.2.2我國(guó)能源需求中煤炭占比持續(xù)在65%以上159
7.2.3我國(guó)煤炭需求集中于工業(yè)部門尤其是能源的加工轉(zhuǎn)換部門159
7.2.4我國(guó)重工業(yè)發(fā)達(dá)省份成為煤炭需求的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域162
7.3我國(guó)煤炭市場(chǎng)供需平衡分析162
7.3.1國(guó)內(nèi)煤炭市場(chǎng)需求疲軟且投資下降162
7.3.2煤炭?jī)暨M(jìn)口代替凈出口意味著國(guó)內(nèi)煤炭產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力下降163
7.3.3煤炭調(diào)出大省晉蒙陜與調(diào)入大省冀蘇魯形成對(duì)比165
7.3.42014年中國(guó)煤流圖分析167
7.4煤炭?jī)r(jià)格市場(chǎng)化改革歷程及影響因素分析169
7.4.1煤炭?jī)r(jià)格市場(chǎng)化改革歷程169
7.4.2煤炭?jī)r(jià)格的影響因素分析170
7.4.3我國(guó)重要?dú)v史事件對(duì)煤炭?jī)r(jià)格的影響171
7.5中國(guó)煤炭市場(chǎng)發(fā)展面臨的挑戰(zhàn)及對(duì)策173
7.5.1中國(guó)煤炭產(chǎn)能嚴(yán)重過(guò)剩且煤炭?jī)r(jià)格低迷173
7.5.2煤炭資源與水資源分布格局相反制約煤炭生產(chǎn)175
7.5.3煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)集中度低，煤礦分布范圍廣，煤炭產(chǎn)量管控機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)共存176
7.5.4我國(guó)煤礦安全問(wèn)題仍然突出，煤炭安全生產(chǎn)工作需強(qiáng)化177
7.5.5煤炭生產(chǎn)對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境破壞嚴(yán)重，礦區(qū)環(huán)境治理有賴于提高煤炭資源開發(fā)利用效率178
7.5.6煤炭企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)產(chǎn)發(fā)展負(fù)擔(dān)嚴(yán)重，政策引導(dǎo)力度需加強(qiáng)178
第8章 中國(guó)電力市場(chǎng)：從寡頭格局到市場(chǎng)化改革179
8.1中國(guó)電力市場(chǎng)化改革正逐步推進(jìn)180
8.1.1電力裝機(jī)和發(fā)電量逐年增長(zhǎng)，供需總體形勢(shì)處于上漲狀態(tài)180
8.1.2電力市場(chǎng)化經(jīng)歷了集資辦電、政企分開、廠網(wǎng)分離等改革歷程181
8.1.3電力市場(chǎng)化改革在結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化、效率提升和節(jié)能減排方面效果顯著182
8.2中國(guó)電力市場(chǎng)價(jià)格走勢(shì)及影響因素分析183
8.2.1我國(guó)當(dāng)前電價(jià)主要由上網(wǎng)電價(jià)、輸配電價(jià)和銷售電價(jià)三部分組成183
8.2.2未來(lái)電價(jià)的發(fā)展方向要有利于資源優(yōu)化配置和能源效率提高184
8.2.3電價(jià)主要受成本、經(jīng)濟(jì)水平、技術(shù)進(jìn)步等因素影響186
8.3國(guó)際電力市場(chǎng)基本特征研究188
8.3.1依據(jù)國(guó)情選擇合理的市場(chǎng)模式188
8.3.2以電價(jià)作為電力市場(chǎng)改革的核心189
8.3.3構(gòu)建跨區(qū)域電力市場(chǎng)促進(jìn)資源優(yōu)化配置190
8.3.4以安全、高效、清潔為目標(biāo)191
8.3.5以需求側(cè)作為市場(chǎng)調(diào)節(jié)的重要手段192
8.4我國(guó)電力市場(chǎng)改革的形勢(shì)與要求192
8.4.1生態(tài)文明建設(shè)和應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化任務(wù)繁重要求深化電力市場(chǎng)改革，促進(jìn)清潔能源發(fā)展192
8.4.2區(qū)域發(fā)展和城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展不均衡要求深化電力市場(chǎng)改革，推動(dòng)公共服務(wù)均等化193
8.4.3能源安全穩(wěn)定供應(yīng)矛盾突出要求深化電力市場(chǎng)改革，保障國(guó)家能源安全193
8.4.4電力行業(yè)自身發(fā)展要求深化電力市場(chǎng)改革，促進(jìn)電力行業(yè)提質(zhì)增效193
8.4.5國(guó)家大力實(shí)施“走出去”戰(zhàn)略要求深化電力市場(chǎng)改革，提升能源企業(yè)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力193
8.5新輪中國(guó)電力市場(chǎng)改革思考194
8.5.1新輪電改中電力市場(chǎng)以“監(jiān)管中間，放開兩頭”為主194
8.5.2電力體制改革的核心是電價(jià)194
8.5.3新輪電改中輸配電價(jià)依然由政府管理196
8.5.4新輪電力市場(chǎng)化改革有利于促進(jìn)新能源的發(fā)展196
8.6促進(jìn)我國(guó)電力市場(chǎng)改革的政策建議197
8.6.1加強(qiáng)發(fā)電端改革，優(yōu)化發(fā)電結(jié)構(gòu)197
8.6.2加強(qiáng)輸酡電改革，建設(shè)智能電網(wǎng)197
8.6.3建立科學(xué)的電價(jià)機(jī)制，促進(jìn)資源優(yōu)化布局197
8.6.4根據(jù)電力行業(yè)屬性，建立與市場(chǎng)相適應(yīng)的監(jiān)管體系197
第9章 中國(guó)石油市場(chǎng)198
9.1我國(guó)石油市場(chǎng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀199
9.1.1國(guó)際油價(jià)持續(xù)低迷199
9.1.2低油價(jià)時(shí)代下的中國(guó)石油產(chǎn)業(yè)200
9.1.3油改破題204
9.2我國(guó)石油貿(mào)易與石油安全205
9.2.1石油進(jìn)口規(guī)模放緩205
9.2.2我國(guó)石油進(jìn)口渠道相對(duì)多元化207
9.2.3海外石油投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)顯著增加208
9.2.4石油安全形勢(shì)復(fù)雜209
9.3成品油定價(jià)機(jī)制改革210
9.3.1成品油價(jià)格逐步擇機(jī)放開210
9.3.2成品油成本結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化利于改革211
9.4石油行業(yè)改革正當(dāng)時(shí)213
9.4.1“三大油企”主導(dǎo)石油產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈213
9.4.2油企混合所有制改革應(yīng)注重各產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈環(huán)節(jié)的協(xié)調(diào)配合215
9.5石油市場(chǎng)改革相關(guān)政策建議217
9.5.1石油貿(mào)易與石油安全政策建議217
9.5.2成品油定價(jià)機(jī)制改革政策建議218
9.5.3油企混合所有制改革政策建議219
第10章 中國(guó)天然氣市場(chǎng)：市場(chǎng)化改革破題221
10.1中國(guó)天然氣市場(chǎng)需求現(xiàn)狀與展望222
10.1.1天然氣需求增速高位回落222
10.1.2天然氣市場(chǎng)重心由內(nèi)陸向沿海轉(zhuǎn)移223
10.1.3天然氣消費(fèi)主要集中在工業(yè)部門224
10.1.4生態(tài)文明建設(shè)成為市場(chǎng)主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力225
10.1.5國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣需求增長(zhǎng)潛力巨大226
10.1.6替代煤炭是天然氣主要發(fā)展方向227
10.2中國(guó)天然氣供應(yīng)能力分析229
10.2.1天然氣供應(yīng)能力快速提升229
10.2.2非常規(guī)天然氣取得突破230
10.2.3煤制氣發(fā)展面臨環(huán)境制約231
10.2.4進(jìn)口管道氣供應(yīng)潛力巨大231
10.2.5進(jìn)口LN(J過(guò)剩問(wèn)題開始顯現(xiàn)232
10.3中國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格機(jī)制234
10.3.1中國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格改革歷程漫長(zhǎng)234
10.3.2中國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格機(jī)制仍然扭曲238
10.3.3輸配氣缺乏監(jiān)管導(dǎo)致費(fèi)率偏高240
10.3.4凈回值定價(jià)法仍需進(jìn)步完善241
10.3.5天然氣交易體系是發(fā)展的重點(diǎn)241
10.4中國(guó)天然氣管網(wǎng)改革研究242
10.4.1輸氣自然壟斷與配氣行政壟斷并存242
10.4.2輸氣管道建設(shè)運(yùn)營(yíng)的開放程度較高243
10.4.3天然氣儲(chǔ)運(yùn)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施能力嚴(yán)重不足245
10.4.4政策不確定性制約天然氣管網(wǎng)發(fā)展246
第11章 中國(guó)能源市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)248
11.1能源市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)狀249
11.1.1市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入在放寬，促進(jìn)更加平等開放的能源市場(chǎng)249
11.1.2從計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)到市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)，市場(chǎng)化改革在加深249
11.1.3電力行業(yè)應(yīng)進(jìn)步擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)者選擇空間，提升各類企業(yè)定價(jià)自主權(quán)250
11.2能源市場(chǎng)化演進(jìn)的歷程和發(fā)展250
11.2.1改革正當(dāng)時(shí)：讓市場(chǎng)在能源供給領(lǐng)域逐步發(fā)揮主導(dǎo)作用250
11.2.2監(jiān)管不可少：政府在能源市場(chǎng)化改革中尋找合理定位251
11.3中國(guó)能源市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的時(shí)代機(jī)遇251
11.3.1新能源汽車發(fā)展勢(shì)頭正猛，清潔能源投資發(fā)展勢(shì)頭良好251
11.3.2“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+”推進(jìn)智慧能源發(fā)展，催生能源互聯(lián)網(wǎng)新業(yè)態(tài)252
11.3.3“帶路”背景下國(guó)際能源區(qū)域間貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)新格局正在形成，有利于倒逼運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)優(yōu)化252
11.4中國(guó)能源市場(chǎng)發(fā)展面臨的挑戰(zhàn)253
11.4.1能源市場(chǎng)發(fā)展需要適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)“新常態(tài)”和發(fā)展新特點(diǎn)253
11.4.2日益趨緊的資源環(huán)境約束制約能耗增長(zhǎng)253
11.4.3產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩和庫(kù)存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能導(dǎo)致部分企業(yè)破產(chǎn)重組253
11.4.4能源進(jìn)口依存度快速提升凸顯能源安全供應(yīng)矛盾254
11.5中國(guó)能源市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展監(jiān)管254
11.5.1能源效率管理與合同能源管理應(yīng)相互兼顧254
11.5.2能源監(jiān)管架構(gòu)需進(jìn)步完善和提升255
參考文獻(xiàn)256
附錄1圖目錄269
附錄2表目錄273
后記283
Contents
Preface
Abbrev1at1ons
Chapter1 Overv1ew of world and Ch1na energy development1
1.1 Rev1ew of world energy development 2
1.1.1 There1s a strong pos1t1ve correlat1on between econom1c development and energy consumpt1on The d1fference of energy elast1c1ty1n d1fferent per1od1s s1gn1f1cant 9
1.1.2 The pattern of energy consumpt1on1s1ncreas1ngly eff1c1ent and clean, and the proport1on of clean energy has1ncreased year by year 3
1.1.3As t1me chang1ng, energy1ntens1t1es for ma1n nat1ons have d1fferent trends.Among them Ch1na has the1argest drop 4
1.1.4The potent1al of energy resources1sn't gloomy, and there1s no s1gn1f1cant decl1ne1n reserveproduct1on rat1os of Oil and gas 5
1.1.5 Global energy Consumpt1on1ncrement mostly comes from develop1ng countr1es.More countr1es have reached the peak of energy consumpt1on 5
1.2 The new changes and new pattern1n the world 7
1.2.1 The growth rate of pr1mary energy consumpt1on has slowed down s1gn1f1cantly.Global energy demand w1ll cont1nue to grow1n next f1fteen years 7
1.2.2 The pr1ce of bulk1ndustr1al goods have decreased sharply s1nce 2014, among wh1ch Oil pr1ce has the1argest decl1ne 8
1.2.3 Prof1ts of upstream energy compan1es have substant1ally decreased Energy1nvestment and M& A bus1ness all decl1ne 9
1.2.4 Clean energy1nvestment h1t a new record aga1n, and clean energy enjoys a sound momentum1O
1.2.5 The Par1s Agreement was adopted The trans1t1on process of global clean energy accelerated1O
1.3 verv1ew of major1nternat1onal energy market1l
1.3.1 Oil reserves r1se stead1ly, and1ts reg1onal d1str1but1on1s extremely uneven1l
1.3.2 Oil demand and supply1ncrements structure has changed a1ot, and the Oil market has ser1ous oversupply11
1.3.3 0il pr1ces fell sharply s1nce the second half of 2014.and the Oil pr1ce may rema1n1ow1n the1ong term14
1.3.401l trade1ncrease stead1ly1n recent years, and the trade growth rate p1cked up1n 201515
1.3.5 The d1str1but1on of gas reserves1s more unbalanced ma1nly concentrated1n1ran Russ1a and Qatar15
1.3.6 The natural gas product1on and consumpt1on both have1ower growth rates than prev1ous years, and the As1aPac1f1c reg1on has the1argest growth rate17
1.3.7 The pr1ces of natural gas1n ma1n reg1ons have been d1fferent s1nce 2008.and pr1ces fell s1gn1f1cantly for the past two years19
1.3.8 Jas trade concentrated1n few countr1es, wh1ch recovered1n 2015 20
1.3.9 Coal reserves have11ttle change annually, and the reg1onal d1str1but1on of coal1s uneven 21
1.3.10 The coal product1on and consumpt1on growth rate have now slowed down and the contrad1ct1on of oversupply1s eased1n 2015 21
1.3.11 Coal pr1ces began to decl1ne s1nce 2012 and coal trade r1ses stead1ly 22
1.4 General s1tuat1on of Ch1na's energy development 23
1.4.1Energy supply ma1nta1ns an1ncreas1ng trend, but mult1ple factors cause the slowdown1n1ts growth rate 23
1.4.2 Foss1l energy dom1nates Ch1na's energy consumpt1on, wh1le clean energy show a1argescale development 25
1.4.3 Ch1na's energy1ntens1ty decreases w1th the econom1c growth, but st1ll h1gher than developed countr1es 26
1.4.401l and gas1mports1ncrease stead1ly, and the fore1gn-trade dependence1ncreases cont1nuously 27
1.4.5 Trad1t1onal energy pr1ces generally decl1ne, wh1ch weakens the compet1t1veness of new energy 28
1.4.6 The generat1on capac1ty of non-foss1l energy develop rap1dly,wh1le w1nd curta1lment and solar curta1lment are ser1ous 30
1.4.7 There1s spac1ous room for veh1cle populat1on's growth, and h1gh subs1d1es promote the explos1ve growth of new energy veh1cles 31
1.4.8Natural gas1s the key to the clean use of trad1t1onal energy, whose supply unfolds rap1d and d1vers1f1ed development 32
1.4.9 Carbon d1ox1de em1ss1ons1ncrease rap1dly, wh1ch place1ncreas1ng pressure oncarbon reduct1on 33
1.5 The new changes and pattern of energy development1n Ch1na 34
1.5.1 The12th F1veYear Plan's energy sav1ng target was bas1cally completed and pressures on the13th F1ve-Year Plan's goal st1ll ex1st 34
1.5.2 To address global cl1mate change, energy conservat1on and em1ss1on reduct1on1s fac1ng new challenges 36
1.5.3 Ch1na's economy enters the new normal stage, and energy supplys1de reform beg1ns to attract more attent1on 37
1.5.4Global Energy1nternet1s constructed act1vely, wh1ch w1ll promote the modern energy system construct1on 37
1.5.5 Electr1c1ty and gas markets are act1vely explored, and a new round of electr1c1ty reform1.s1n full1mplementat1on 38
Chapter2 The factors of Ch1na energy market 40
2.1 The producers of Ch1na energy market and the1r character1st1cs 41
2.1.1 Coal dom1nates energy market supply and proport1on of clean energy1s r1s1ng 41
2.1.2 Concentrat1on rat1os1n d1fferent energy markets are d1fferent and d1fferent11nks1n the same var1ety are not the same 42
2.1.3 Access thresholds for d1fferent11nks1n energy market are d1fferent and access threshold for the upstream of the supply cha1n1s h1gher 44
2.1.4The pr1c1ng strateg1es are not the same1n var1ous k1nds of energy,and the pr1c1ng of coal has the h1ghest degree of market1zat1on 45
2.2 Consumers1n Ch1na's energy market and the1r character1st1cs 45
2.2.1Macro perspect1ve: The government has a great1nfluence, and energy us1ng structure of enterpr1ses and res1dents needs to be1mproved 45
2.2.2 M1cro perspect1ve: proport1on of1ndustry energy consumpt1on1s1arge, and energy consumpt1on1ncreases1n construct1on and transportat1on 48
2.3 Ch1na's energy cost account1ng 51
2.3.1 Ch1na's energy cost account1ng ex1st some problems 51
2.3.2 H1stor1c evolut1on of co.st account1ng and the d1rect1on of future1mprovement 51
2.3.3The deta1led cost account1ng methods of some representat1ve energy products such as gas, Oil and electr1c1ty 52
2.4Ch1na's energy pr1c1ng mechan1sm 54
2.4.1H1stor1cal changes of Ch1na's energy pr1c1ng mechan1sm 54
2.4.2 The1atest advances of Ch1na's energy pr1c1ng mechan1sm 56
2.4.3The reform d1rect1on of Ch1na's energy pr1c1ng mechan1sm1n the future 57
2.5 Ch1na's energy market eff1c1ency and government1nvolvement 58
2.5.1Macroeconom1c regulat1on and control to energy market eff1c1ency by government's v1s1ble hands 58
2.5.2 The reform d1rect1on of Ch1na's energy enterpr1se management: Separat1on of enterpr1se from adm1n1strat1on and well-def1ned dut1es and respons1b1l1t1es 58
2.5.3 The or1entat1on of government1n energy market needs to be further clar1f1ed and opt1m1zed 59
Chapter 3 The1nfluence on energy market1n new normal macro pol1cy 60
3.1 The1nfluence of Ch1na's econom1c rebalanc1ng on energy market 61
3.1.1 The connotat1on of the new normal: H1gh speed econom1c growth1n Ch1na,structural transformat1on 61
3.1.2 Ch1na's economy1s fac1ng grow1ng tense constra1nts of resources and env1ronment 61
3.1.3 Control for the growth of h1gh-carbon1ndustry str1ctly, emphas1ze on1mprov1ng energy eff1c1ency1ndex 62
3.2 The1nfluence of RMB1nternat1onal1zat1on on the energy market 64
3.2.1RMB1nternat1onal1zat1on: Connotat1on and process64
3.2.2RMB devaluat1on w1ll reduce coal1mports, wh1ch may make Ch1na become a net exporter of coal 67
3.2.3 Emp1r1cal analys1s of the1mpact of RMB exchange rate change on Ch1na's Oil
1mport and export trade 67
3.3 The1nfluence of1nterest rate market1zat1on on energy markets 69
3.3.11nterest rate as a monetary pol1cy tool1mpacts on energy pr1ces 70
3.3.21nterest rate ma1nly affects the1nvestment of renewable energy and the overseas1nvestment of Ch1nese enterpr1ses 70
3.3.3 Make full use of1nterest rate1ever, promote the development of the energy market 71
3.4 The1nfluence of f1nanc1al and tax system reform on the energy market 71
3.4.1 F1scal and tax pol1c1es support the development of energy market effect1vely 71
3.4.2 Problems ex1st when f1scal and tax pol1c1es are put1nto pract1ce at present 72
3.4.3 0pt1m1ze f1nanc1al and tax system reform, promote the development of energy market 74
3.4.4 Resources tax: Step by step plan should be appl1ed 75
3.4.5 The pros and cons of1evy1ng env1ronment tax are controvers1al 76
3.5 The1nfluence of new energy and renewable energy promot1on pol1c1es effects on energy market 77
3.5.1 The overv1ew of new energy and renewable energy promot1on pol1c1es 77
3.5.2 Renewable energy1s general1zed1n arch1tecture f1eld 78
3.5.3 Develop1ng new energy automot1ve1ndustry gets more and more attent1on 79
3.6 The1nfluence of supply-s1de structural reform on energy market 80
3.6.1 Excess capac1ty1s an1mportant reason of supply-s1de structural reform 80
3.6.2 Supplys1de structural reform: Enhance the qual1ty of supply and total factor product1v1ty 81
3.6.3 Supplys1de structural reform1nfluences energy market from four aspects based on new supplys1de econom1cs 82
3.6.4The character1st1cs and1atest tendency of "de-capac1ty, destock1ng, de-leverage, cost-decreas1ng, weaknessrecover1ng 83
Chapter4 R1sk analys1s and r1sk management1n energy market 85
4.1 The analys1s of supply and demand r1sk1n energy market 86
4.1.1 The transm1ss1on mechan1sm of the macro economy to the energy market 86
4.1.2 The r1sk of energy demand 87
4.1.3 The r1sk of energy supply 88
4.2 The1mpact of the global cap1tal market on energy market 89
4.2.1 The r1sk sp1llover of f1nanc1al cr1s1s on energy market1n short run 89
4.2.2 The cont1nu1ng effect of f1nanc1al cr1s1s on energy supply and demand 93
4.3 The sp1llover effect of1nternat1onal energy market pol1cy r1sk 94
4.3.1 Var1ous pol1c1es w1th s1m1lar trend for countr1es 94
4.3.2 New energy pol1cy supports, market share1ncreases 96
4.3.3 Technolog1cal progress1ncreases the r1sk of the trad1t1onal energy market 97
4.4 Suggest1on for r1sk management1n energy market 99
4.4.1 R1sk Management of f1nanc1al cr1s1s sp1llover effect 99
4.4.2 R1sk Management of energy market pol1cy uncerta1nty 99
Chapter5 Ch1na's energy futures market: Research on1ts f1nanc1al attr1bute 1Ol
5.1 Development of Ch1na's energy futures market 102
5.1.1H1story of Ch1na's energy futures market 102
5.1.2 Var1et1es of Ch1na's energy futures 103
5.1.3 Rev1ew on Ch1na's Oil futures market 109
5.2 Trends of Ch1na's energy futures market 112
5.2.1The1n1t1al11st1ng of crude Oil futures1s unclear 112
5.2.2 Natural gas futures1s des1gned to compete for pr1c1ng power 113
5.2.3 "1nternet +" boosts the development of Ch1na energy futures 114
5.3Pr1ce d1scovery1n energy spot and futures market 116
5.3.1 0verv1ew of pr1ce d1scovery1n energy futures market 116
5.3.2 Measurement method of pr1ce d1scovery 118
5.3.3Assessment of pr1ce d1scovery1n Ch1na's fuel Oil and b1tumen markets 119
5.3.4Spot pr1ce performs the pr1ce d1scovery for both fuel Oil and b1tumen 121
5.4 Pr1ce factors of fuel Oil futures 122
5.4.1Pol1t1cal and macroeconom1c factors affect pr1ce trend 122
5.4.2 Fundamentals support futures pr1ce1evel 123
5.4.3 Market trad1ng dom1nates pr1ce fluctuat1ons 124
5.5 St1mulat1ve measures for the v1tal1ty of energy futures market 126
5.5.1 Extend energy futures var1et1es and1mprove the effect1veness of spot market 126
5.5.2 Ensure the energy strateg1c reserve and ma1nta1n pr1ce mechan1sm 127
5.5.31mprove system des1gn and promote an act1ve market 127
5.5.41mprove1nternal control mechan1sms and reduce transact1on r1sk 128
5.5.51ntroduce market maker and act1vate11qu1d1ty 128
5.5.6Promote1nnovat1on and transformat1on of energy1ndustry by1nternet f1nanc1al platform 128
5.6.1mproved regulat1on mode for energy futures marke 129
5.6.1Establ1sh Petroleum Fund system and enhance r1sk management mechan1sm 129
5.6.2 Encourage1ndustr1al compet1t1on and make the best of futures market 129
5.6.3 Reduce the threshold and1mprove market access system 129
Chapter 6 The reg1onal d1str1but1on character1st1cs of energy resource endowment1n Ch1na 130
6.1 Reg1onal d1str1but1on character1st1cs of Ch1na's energy resources endowment 131
6.1.1 The north r1ch south poor, west more east1ess d1str1but1on character1st1c ofcoal resources 131
6.1.2 The thermal power1s dom1nant, hydroelectr1c1s complementary structure 133
6.1.3 The north more south1ess d1str1but1on character1st1c of Oil and gas resources 136
6.2 The energy consumpt1on character1st1cs1n d1fferent reg1ons of Ch1na 138
6.2.1 The east w1th north prov1nces consume more and the west w1th south prov1nces consume1ess1n coal sector 138
6.2.2 The east prov1nces consume more and the other prov1nces consume1ess1n electr1c sector 139
6.2.3The east prov1nces consume more1n Oil sector 141
6.2.4Unbalance consumpt1on for each prov1nce1n natural gas sector 142
6.3 Cross-reg1onal energy trade of Ch1na 144
6.3.1 The transportat1on of coal are from west to east and from north to south 144
6.3.2 The transportat1on of electr1c1.s from west to east 145
6.3.3 The transportat1on of Oil are from north to south and from west to east 146
6.3.4The transportat1on of natural gas1s from west to east 147
6.3.5 The pol1cy recommendat1ons for cross-reg1onal energy trade 148
6.4 The pol1cy1mpl1cat1on for cross-reg1onal energy trade 148
6.4.1 The dr1v1ng force and current cond1t1on of cross-reg1onal transportat1on of energy 149
6.4.2 The problems of cross reg1onal transportat1on and1nfrastructure construct1on of energy 150
6.4.3 Suggest1on on opt1m1z1ng the spat1al pattern of energy transportat1on 151
6.5 Trade structure and var1at1on trend of energy markets between1arge areas under the background of 6the Belt and Road 152
6.5.1 The background of "the Belt and Road" and the ma1n energy areas 152
6.5.2 The trade structure of the ma1n energy areas under the background of the Belt and Road 152
6.5.3 New pattern of ma1n energy reg1on of trade structure1.s form1ng unde the Belt and Road 153
Chapter 7 The coal market1n Ch1na 154
7.1Character1st1cs of coal market supply1n Ch1na 155
7.1.1The reserves of coal1s r1ch wh1le the reserveproduct1on rat1o1s1ow 155
7.1.2 Coal plays a foundat1onal role1n the energy supply1n Ch1na w1th the trendstrength 156
7.1.3 The coal supply1n Ch1na concentrates1n 9 prov1nces such as Shanx1 and1nner Mongol1a 157
7.2 Character1st1cs of coal market requ1rement1n Ch1na 158
7.2.1 Coal requ1rement1n Ch1na accounts for more than a half of global aggregate coal requ1rement 158
7.2.2 Coal accounts for more than 65% of Ch1na's energy requ1rement 159
7.2.3 The coal requ1rement1n Ch1na concentrates on1ndustr1al sectors espec1ally1n energy process1ng and transform1ng 159
7.2.4Prov1nces w1th prosperous heavy1ndustry1n Ch1na come to be the key reg1onof coal requ1rement 162
7.3Analys1s of the balance of supply and demand of coal market1n Ch1na 162
7.3.1 The domest1c coal market requ1rement as well as the relevant1nvestment fall off 162
7.3.2 Replacement of the coal net export by the coal net1mport1mply the decl1ne of the domest1c coal product1on completeness 163
7.3.3Shanx1,1nner Mongol1a, Shaanx1 have the1argest amount of1nput wh1le Hebe1 J1angsu, Shandong have a1arger amount1n output 165
7.3.4Analys1s of the coal flow d1agram1n Ch1na1n 2014 167
7.4 The reform process1ng and1nfluent1al factors of the market1zat1on of the coal pr1ce 169
7.4.1 The reform process1ng of the market1zat1on of the coal pr1ce 169
7.4.2 Analys1s of the1nfluenc1al factors1n coal pr1ce 170
7.4.3 The1mpact of s1gn1f1cant events on coal pr1ce 171
7.5Challenges and strateg1es1n Ch1nese coal market 173
7.5.1 Ch1na has an excess capac1ty1n coal result1ng1n a1ow coal pr1ce 173
7.5.2 Due to the oppos1te spat1al d1str1but1on pattern between coal and water resource,the water resource ma\r constra1n the coal product1on 175
7.5.3 The management of coal product1on need further strength due to a1ow concentrat1on but w1despread coal1ndustry1n Ch1na 176
7.5.4The safety problems1n coal m1ne rema1n ser1ous and need further effort on safety coal product1on1n Ch1na 177
7.5.5 Coal product1on1eads a great damage on env1ronment the key to the env1ronmental governance11es1n the1mprovement1n resource development eff1c1ency 178
7.5.6The sh1ft for the coal enterpr1se may1ead to a heavy burden wh1ch may need a more strengthened gu1dance of pol1t1cs 178
Chapter 8 Ch1nese electr1c1ty market: From ol1gopoly structure to market-or1ented reform179
8.1 The market-or1ented reform of Ch1nese electr1c1ty market1s gradually advanc1ng 180
8.1.1 The1nstalled electr1c1ty capac1ty and output of electr1c1ty1ncrease year by year, and both the supply and demand take on a growth trend on the whole 180
8.1.2 To ach1eve electr1c1ty market1zat1on, fund1ng for power generat1on, separat1on of enterpr1se from adm1n1strat1on, and separat1on of plant and gr1d were undergone 181
8.1.3 Remarkable ach1evements of structure opt1m1zat1on eff1c1ency promot1on.energy conservat1on and em1ss1on reduct1on1n electr1c1ty market1zat1on reform were made 182
8.2 Analys1s on pr1ce trend1n Ch1nese electr1c1ty market and1nfluence factors 183
8.2.1 Presently, the electr1c1ty pr1ce1mplemented1n Ch1na ma1nly cons1sts of gr1d purchase pr1ce, transm1ss1on-d1str1but1on pr1ce and electr1c1ty sales pr1ce 183
8.2.21n future, the development of electr1c1ty pr1ce should be made to fac1l1tate opt1m1z1ng resource allocat1on and1mprov1ng energy eff1c1ency 184
8.2.3 Electr1c1ty pr1ce1s ma1nly1nfluenced by cost, econom1c1evel and techn1cal progress, etc 186
8.3 Research on bas1c character1st1cs of1nternat1onal electr1c1ty market 188
8.3.11t1s supposed to select an appropr1ate market model based on the nat1onal cond1t1ons 188
8.3.21mprove the electr1c1ty market by focus1ng on reformat1on of electr1c1ty pr1ce 189
8.3.3 Construct crossreg1onal electr1c1ty market to promote opt1mal allocat1on of resources 190
8.3.4Rregulate the market ma1nly v1a the demand s1de 191
8.3.5 To ach1eve energy safety, eff1c1ency, and clean energy 192
8.4 S1tuat1on of and requ1rements for reform of Ch1nese electr1c1ty market 192
8.4.1 The tough tasks of ecolog1cal c1v1l1zat1on construct1on and cop1ng w1th cl1mat1c change requ1re us to deepen electr1c1ty market reform to promote clean energy development 192
8.4.2 The1mbalanced reg1onal development and econom1c1nequal1ty between urban and rural areas requ1re us to deepen electr1c1ty market reform to promote equal1zat1on of publ1c serv1ce 193
8.4.3 The acute1mbalance between supply and demand of safe stable energy requ1res us to deepen electr1c1ty market reform to safeguard nat1onal energy secur1ty 193
8.4.4The development of the electr1c1ty sector requ1res us to deepen electr1c1ty market reform to1mprove qual1ty and eff1c1ency of the electr1c1ty sector 193
8.4.5 The strategy of stepp1ng out of the state requ1res us to deepen electr1c1ty market reform to promote the1nternat1onal compet1t1veness of energy enterpr1ses 193
8.5Th1nk1ng on the new reform of Ch1nese electr1c1ty market194
8.5.11n the new reform, the1dea of regulat1ng the m1ddle, and deregulat1ng the two ends1s adhered 194
8.5.2 The core of the reformat1on of electr1c power system1s electr1c1ty pr1ce 194
8.5.3 Accord1ng to the new reform the transm1ss1on-d1str1but1on pr1ce1s st1ll under the control of the government 196
8.5.4The new electr1c1ty market1zat1on reform w1ll promote new energy development 196
8.6 Pol1cy suggest1ons1n favor of the reform of Ch1nese electr1c1ty market 197
8.6.1Strength reform at the end of electr1c1ty generat1on to opt1m1ze electr1c1ty generat1on structure 197
8.6.2 Strength reform of power transm1ss1on and d1str1but1on to construct a smart gr1d 197
8.6.3 Establ1sh a sc1ent1f1c electr1c1ty pr1c1ng mechan1sm, to promote opt1mal allocat1on of resources 197
8.6.4Establ1sh a superv1s1on system f1tt1ng w1th the market accord1ng to the attr1butes of the electr1c1ty sector197
Chapter 9 Ch1nese Oil market198
9.1The current s1tuat1on of Ch1nese Oil market 199
9.1.11nternat1onal Oil pr1ces rema1n1ow1eve l199
9.1.2 Ch1nese Oil1ndustr1es1n the per1od of1ow Oil pr1ce 200
9.1.3Reform of Oil1ndustry 204
9.2 01l trade and secur1ty1n Ch1na 205
9.2.111tter reduct1on of Oil1mports of Ch1na 205
9.2.2 D1vers1f1ed channels of Ch1nese Oil1mports 207
9.2.3 R1sks on overseas petroleum1nvestment1ncreases s1gn1f1cantly 208
9.2.4Complex s1tuat1on of petroleum secur1ty 209
9.3 Reform of ref1ned Oil pr1c1ng mechan1sm 210
9.3.1Marketor1ented reform of ref1ned Oil1s gradually 210
9.3.2 The market reform benef1t the ref1ned Oil cost structure 211
9.401l1ndustry reform1s at the t1me 213
9.4.1Dom1nant pos1t1on of three major compan1es1n Oil1ndustry cha1n 213
9.4.2 Coord1nat1on and cooperat1on among1ndustry cha1ns are1mportant for Oil enterpr1ses reform 215
9.5Pol1cy1mpl1cat1on for Oil market reform 217
9.5.1 Suggest1on for Oil trade and secur1ty 217
9.5.2 Suggest1on for the reform of ref1ned Oil pr1c1ng mechan1sm 218
9.5.3 Suggest1on for the reform of Oil compan1es' ownersh1p structure 219
Chapter10 Ch1na's natural gas market: Breakthrough of market1zat1on reform 221
1O.1 Status and forecast1ng of Ch1na's natural gas demand 222
10.1.1Growth rate of natural gas demand dropped cons1derably 227
10.1.2 Natural gas market moves from1nland to coastal areas 223
10.1.31ndustr1al sectors are the ma1n consumers 224
10.1.4Ecolog1cal c1v1l1zat1on construct1on becomes the ma1n dr1ven force 225
10.1.5 The domest1c natural gas demand1.s of great potent1al 226
10.1.6 The ma1n development d1rect1on1s to replace coal consumpt1on 227
10.2 Analys1s on Ch1na's natural gas supply capac1ty 229
10.2.1Natural gas supply capac1ty1ncreased rap1dly 229
10.2.2 Unconvent1onal gas development made a b1g progress 230
10.2.3 Synthet1c natural gas1s fac1ng the env1ronmental constra1nts 231
10.2.41mported p1pel1ne natural gas1s of huge potent1a 231
10.2.51mported1N(;1s oversuppl1ed 232
10.3 Ch1na's natural gas pr1c1ng mechan1sm 234
10.3.1 The h1story of Ch1na's natural gas pr1c1ng mechan1sm reform1ng1s1ong 234
10.3.2 Ch1na's natural gas pr1c1ng mechan1sm1s st1ll d1storted 238
10.3.3 Transm1ss1on and d1str1hut1on tar1ff1s too h1gh due to1ack of regulat1on 240
10.3.4 Net return value pr1c1ng needs to be mod1f1ed 241
10.3.5 Natural gas trad1ng system1s the key of market development 241
10.4 Stud1es on Ch1na's natural gas p1pel1nes 242
10.4.1Natural monopoly of transm1ss1on p1pel1nes coll1des w1th adm1n1strat1ve monopoly of d1str1but1on p1pel1nes 242
10.4.2 The construct1on and operat1on of transm1ss1on p1pel1nes are h1ghly open 243
10.4.3Natural gas transm1ss1on and storage capac1ty1s1nsuff1c1ent 245
10.4.4Uncerta1n pol1cy11m1ts the development of natural gas p1pel1nes 246
Chapter11 Development prospects of Ch1na's energy market: Opportun1t1es and challenges 248
11.1 The current s1tuat1on1n energy market 249
11.1.1Market access1s broaden1ng to promote more equal and open energy market 249
11.1.2 From planned economy to market economy; Market1zat1on reform1s deepen1ng 249
11.1.3 Electr1c1ty market should further broaden consumers' cho1ce space, and all k1nds of enterpr1ses could expand the pr1ce autonomy 250
11.2 The evolut1on process and development of energy market1zat1on 250
11.2.1 Reform1s gong1ng on:1et market play a1ead1ng role1n energy supply 250
11.2.2 Regulat1on1s necessary:1et government f1nd a reasonable pos1t1on1n energy market1zat1on reform 251
11.3 The opportun1t1es for Ch1na's energy market development 251
11.3.1 The development of new energy automob1les1s v1gorous, and the development of clean energy1nvestment1s pretty good 251
11.3.2 1nternet+ promotes smart energy development and breeds emerg1ng bus1ness of energy1nternet 252
11.3.3 A new trade structure pattern among1nternat1onal energy reg1ons under the background of "One Belt and One Road"1s emerg1ng, wh1ch forces the transportat1on network opt1m1zat1on advantageously 252
11.4 The challenges of Ch1na's energy market development 253
11.4.1The energy market must adapt to the "New Normal" and new development character1st1c 253
11.4.2 Env1ronmental and resource restr1ct1ons become t1ghter day by day, wh1ch restr1ct the1ncrease of energy consumpt1on 253
11.4.3Excess capac1ty and1nventory r1sk m1ght result1n some enterpr1ses' bankruptcy recomb1nat1on 253
11.4.4The rap1d growth of fore1gn-trade depend